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Saturday, February 11, 2017

How to Find Stocks to Buy and Grow Our Money

In share trading, I rely a lot on analysts and bloggers who are kind to share.

1)Self research
2)Analyst Reports
3)Bloggers

1)Self
Some are from my own analysis from news and company's annoucement. Eg Boilerm 200% gain, MFCB-WA 100% and still counting where analyst recommended MFCB but I analysed the warrant. TSH more than 100%. JHM after sifu sold, but I hold on because of the analysis that I have done. etc etc etc. etc etc etc etc and many more. Off course, some went into Holland (performed badly).

2)Analyst Reports
Huayang 300%, Freight 200%, Evergreen 200%, etc ect etc etc etc. etc etc many more. Thanks to all analysts. Again, some also went to Holland.

3)Blogger Sifu
First of all, thanks Sifu Icon. He bought JHM at RM0.46 and sold at RM1.28 after 8 months, for big gain of 180%!!

I put into the list at RM0.7x and now is RM2.0x, up 185%. 5% better than sifu.

I have been learning from sifu and started with JHM at RM0.7x because sifu said few words...... "he sold and bought back (due to strong fundamental from the latest financial result). Price already went up more than 50% from sifu cost but it is all about future. Lesson, history = history. Shares trading is about future.

Still got a lot to learn from sifu.
Based on the chart, I think he took 7.5 months. Mine is 8.5 months. Off course sifu is better.
His cost is much lower.
The reason i started JHM also because of his sharing.

But I did better than sifu on only one thing. Sifu sold too early at RM1.28, but I still let JHM in the list because of the potential. Now up more than 60% from RM1.28. He bought into few stocks that performed very much lower than the 60% gain, eg Affin, CIMB, SUPERMAX, etc. If he hold on to JHM like me, he would have made much more.

I guess he is satisfied with the gain he made because price went up too much. I think he made a mistake on looking at "historical price" more than looking at the future.

Sifu is sifu, no way to compete with him. Just like in a car racing, sifu already few laps in front, but only a small mistake he made where I can beat him in the one lap. Just one lap. There are few hundred laps.

Also thank him for Tguan 40% up and Opensys 30%. The Holland stocks are Supermax and DKSL. EG is hanging.

Thank sifu Dummy for AWC 170%, Johotin and Hevea. The Holland stock is COMPLET share.

Sifu dummy is very good in analysis. 2016 everyone made very good profit but he made losses. I think because he didn't do portfolio review. He keep holding unto many stocks that already went up and lack growth. If he have the heart to chop most of his stocks every year that lack growth, his return will be superb.

Thanks sifu Uncle Ben for KESM 90% up and IQGroup 40%.

Thanks Paperplane sifu in giving confidence in KESM.

And many sifu who I didn't have the chance to thank here.

In conclusion, there are many ways to look for stocks to buy. I will not be as good or even near the skill of the analysts and many sifu in terms of analysis, but we must know the basic fundamentals, which are cheap PE ratio and high growth.

If we follow analysts and sifu on all the stocks that we see, we will be buying few hundred stocks.

Sometimes we may dispute with them also, example in the case of JHM sifu sold but I still keep in the list. I ignore analyst recommendation when few of them recommend Bursa shares at RM15.

We can also do our own analysis on stocks that are not covered by analysts or bloggers.

In short, this will be my behaviour if I am new....
1) Follow.
I observe their track records and follow the one with better records. Because I don't know anything.

2)Filter.
I have some basic knowledge. Filter all recommendations and sharings by selecting stocks with better figures.

3)Analyse stocks from others.
From all the recommendations or sharings, analyse their figures. May dispute with them. Make own conclusions and decisions.

4)Analyse on own stocks. Look for stocks from everywhere and analyse them in order to come out with some gems to buy.

5)In-depth analysis
Analyse the stocks. Attend AGM. Meet up with management. Hire professional to assist. Study the industry and economy. Buy a big block of the company. May hire a director to be in the Board.

I think I'm in Level 3, trying to be in the basic of Level 4.

Stock market investment is easy. Don't let some potential losses to stop us. Gains are much much more and more than losses.

Happy Investing.

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Saturday, January 28, 2017

MFCB Warrant, JHM, IQGROUP, EG, KESM, SUPERMAX, TGUAN, OPENSYS, Prolexus, Superlon, BIOHLDG, AWC, BISON

MFCB-WA up 55%
MFCB-WA up 55% from RM0.60 in October 2016 since it is added to the list to RM0.93 now. Still the same news, no further update and still in the list. Refer to the old news in my blog.

JHM up 170%
JHM up 170% from RM0.70x in mid of 2016 to RM1.92 now. Still the same old news and still in the list.

IQGroup up 40%
IQGroup up 40% from Oct 2016. No further news, hold in the list.

EG not much up/down
July 2017 RM0.8x, now also about the same.

KESM up 90%
July 2016 RM5.x, now RM10.26.

Supermax drop a bit.
RM2.1x Sep 2016. Now RM2.08

TGuan up 40%
April 2016, RM3.1x, now RM4.18.
But Newbie got higher % up because he got warrant. Smarter than me.

OPENSYS up 30%
RM0.27. 2nd quarter 2016, now RM0.35. It went up to as high as RM0.41, not a single share was taken out of the list. Too bad.

Prolexus not much up/down
RM1.41 Sep 2016, now RM1.38.
One third of quantity in the list only because was waiting for 2nd half of 2017

Superlon up 30%
RM1.9x May 2016, now RM2.57.

BIOHLDG
Dont know, because got rights issue. Lazy to cumpute and two rounds of entries, one before and one from rights issue.

AWC up 170%
Lost track of date.
RM0.38x, now RM1.06
Quantity not much.

Bison. Should not be compare together with the above stocks because very litle quantity.
Bison up more than 30%, or could be more. Lazy to check.

=======

All the above no action right now, still in the list. As mentioned in previous post, for me stock market is not One Morning One Night. It is long term.

Again, I have mentioned than 20 times, I'm not looking for 5% or 20% upside. But looking for 30%, 50%, 100% or 200%.

Not all stocks were up, some are bad. But generally some stocks gain a lot, and in total can have a good average per year.

Sorry if I have to repeat many times, interested to change from very little profit or loss per year to good profit, some suggestions below:

1)Good fundamental GROWTH stock
2)Low PE ratio would be good.
3)High dividend yield and/or low borrowing are better.

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Saturday, January 14, 2017

Top Picks For 2017

BIOHLDG rights issues have been completed and exicting future ahead. The warrants have been taken out of the list at RM0.095 to RM0.10. Now BIOHLGD-WA share price is RM0.12 with high of RM0.13, no regret. High risk taker will prefer warrant, which was about 50% premium. This is more of a long term decision. I also correctly posted on QL warrant and another warrant high premium few years ago.

For the photo that I have posted, I have not verified on the accuracy because certain target prices I could not search for the report.

Saw many good news posted by many sifu about EG, but EG share price hardly move up. There was one article about high receivables, etc which are bad.

AWC has broken the RM1.00 and some quantities has been taken out of the list at RM1.0x for the sake of phychological price of RM1.00.

Sasbadi stock.
Interested in Sasbadi stock at share price RM1.56 with target price by CIMB of RM2.81 giving the fair value of an upside potential of 80% of the share price. I couldn't find the CIMB report don't know true or not. Saw other reserach reports said the company is penetrating schools with its Lego Robotic lessons. I have observed a school and centre and I know this Robotic classes are extremely in high demand. Whether Malay Chinese Indian parents will send their children to attend. Add on Lego, more will be interested. The classes are always packed. For info, one school without Lego the class conducted in school charge about RM130 per month, 2 hours a week. One centre outside with Lego charge about RM200 per month 2.5 hours a week.

I noticed the Sasbadi PE ratio is quite high and I couldn't find the CIMB report. No action yet.

Zelan stock.
I didn't realised when Zelan share price dropped to RM0.10. If I know I may have bought it and Zelan share price rebounded to RM0.15, giving 50% return within a short period of time.

NO !!!! This is NOT true !!!!

This is the Cannon Behind The Horse talking.

Yes, if I know Zelan drop to RM0.10 I may buy. But I may buy at RM0.12 also. Then drop further I may panic and sell at RM0.095.

I may buy RM0.10 but may have sold at RM0.115 to take profit.

I may have waited for cheaper price at RM0.085 and may not get it.

So many "if" and so many "may". When we look back we always assume that will happen and we talk about it what we could have done. We called this Cannon Behind The Horse, meaning talk about past events. Sorry for Arsenal fans, no offense, but some jokes, all these sound like Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. Arsenal almost bought Messi, Ronaldo, Zlantan, etc.

By the way, Zelan does not fit into the investment criteria, but the buying consideration was merely for trading purposes. Related to Syed Mokhtar, so I'm thinking probably he will not let it down and RM0.10 is a strong psychological level.

JAKS stock.
Few years back knowing JACKS have a lot of projects that would made them busy for many years. Went into the list for small quantity too early and out at a loss. Now JAKS is in the spotlight again. I'll skip this one because couldn't understand clearly their future growth plan.

As mentioned previuosly, now my criteria is more stringent because:
1)I want to be very certain on the future, so that when the price drop I will not panic and take the stock out of the list.
2)in 2016 I have improved on stock analysis and I have more choices to choose from.

It is good that we reflect our pass mistakes and try to improve. One of my past mistakes were because I cut on stocks from the list when I share price dropped due to lack of confidence. For those I have clearer picture, I hold them in the list or add more and turned out to be awesome.

I saw a virtual stock trading competition and many strong sifu participated in the past few years. Select about 5 to 8 stocks and hold for the whole year, cannot sell and cannot buy again. The winners are impressive and some sifu have been consistent for few years.

No doubt those top 20 are good especially some are repeated for few years.
Luck play a part because cannot trade for the whole year. One thing I have observed is almost all top winners have a negative stock for the year. They normally have one or two stocks with very high returns and the others are average or negative.

No matter how good these sifu are, they also make mistake by selecting loss making stocks.

The pattern is quite similar to the track records of my list. Having high return for few stocks and occasionally some loss making. I wish to repeat, upside is unlimited can be 100% 200% or 400% or more, but downside is maximum 100% only. But most of the time the losses are capped at 30% only while at the same time registering many 100% price increase.

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Sunday, December 25, 2016

One Morning One Night in Bursa, EG, Hang Seng Call Warrant, Biohldg, Prolexus, Superlon, Bioalpha

My chinese friends said 一朝一夕 means one morning one night. It means very short period of time. In stock market investment (not trading), the result is not 一朝一夕. That's why many people have given up. Every day look at the screen and feel sad asking why their stocks prices didn't go up and some were down.

We must remember investmemt is not 一朝一夕 yī zhāo yī xī. In cantonese it is pronounced as YatJioYatJic.

Many days ago saw many Hang Seng HSI call warrants suddenly dropped a lot. For sure there will be a lot of losses. Be careful of trading in call warrants especially HSI because of huge premium and you are fighting against time.

If you buy call warrant C hoping market good you make money, and you buy put warrant H hoping to make money when market down, yes sound very easy. BUT, but and but there is something called premium. Most of the call or put warrants are trading at a huge premium. The prices will continue to drop until they reaches expiry, unless there is a very BIG swing up or down in Hang Seng. Another example is C may down 5% a week, but H may up only 2% a week. If you bought correctly you make 2% or 20% for example, but if you bought wrongly you may lose 5% or 23%. Therefore, it is not a 50 50 chance. Be careful.

Read from news that the 3rd quarter "EARNINGS CONTINUE TO BLEED". What it meant was many companies announced bad result. But most of the stocks in my list are performing okay in terms of profits or prices.

EG and Superlon announced normal good result. Prices reacted a bit positive.

BioHldg Bioalpha rights issue ceased trading. It will take many months or couple of years for them to use the money from rights issue to expand and bring in good additional profits.

PrLexus result bad. Price also dropped. The growth will be from the completion of new plants in 2017.

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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Make Money From Stock Market is about FUTURE, and not just past ROI, Cash Flow, Dividend, etc

Sometimes I read a lot of arguements and disputes about who right and who is wrong.

I summarised these people into 3
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF

HFA
There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking abou net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical.
If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.

If the asset worth RM10 per share, now selling at RM6 per share, good buy. But if profit keep dropping or no increase, we may not make money. Unless we are the owner, we buy at RM6 and then sell the whole company at RM10.

They will show you numbers,  then numbers and lastly numbers until your kepala pening "headache".

Don't get me wrong. All these are important. But we should spend more time thinking and searching info about the future. Nobody know about the future. You are half right. If your son is in Form 3, next year in the Future he will be in form 4. But sometimes unforeseen things happen. He decided to stop studying and concentrate on badminton and you got it wrong. We don't know 100% about the future but we can forecast based on information that we have.

BL
Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.

Analysts are the same. They forecast and they value. That is why in research report only few simple tables showing some important figures and forecast. They don't much much about ROI, net asset per share, etc.

For me, this is the best approach.

SF
Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simiplied. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.

×××××××

Just Vitamin C is not enough, that's why we need multivitamin.

I have attended a 2 full days course on fundamental, it did not benefit me much because they focus too much on cash, dividend, current ratio, etc. I thought that was just one topic, maybe Level 2 talk about Future. I went to chat with them, that's all, they just invest based in historical fundamental. The tutor was also quite surprise on the high % gain my friend made in 2013. I know why, because they focus too much on dividend and stable stock, their return per year will not be high.

Investment is about Future and Valuation. Not just future and not just valuation.

Not to say I am "Mr Know It All", I don't know all and I am learning. But because lack of time, I don't really read those just talk mainly on fundamental. Because I only have 24 hours a day, I focus on those who talk about Future and Valuation.

With this would like to thank all analysts and those who contribution information generously.

Thank you.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

JHM, DKSH, SUPERLON, TGUAN, Opensys, KESM, Oldtown, MBSB, MFCB, MFCB-WA, BioAlpha

Some updates for my personal diary for myself .

JHM
JHM stock announced good result. Big jump from previous quarter. Although revenue dropped a bit from preceding quarter, profit improved due to better margin on product mix. I think short term may not have big push upward, medium term hoping for catalysts from i)new Europe and Japan market profits, ii)aerospace certification and iii)transfering to Bursa Main Market in 2018. The growth is still there, but may need some time. Made another 100% return from a stock and this stock will remain in my list. You can see that I will not take out the stock from my list if made 10% or 20% or even 100%. Make decision not base on %, but the PE ratio and future growth.

DKSH Holdings stock.
Result is bad and DKSH share price down. Few weeks ago I took off OCK and Vitrox from my list. I have forgotten about DKSH.
Poor judgement on DKSH was due to:
i)The guidance of better result from management was wrong. Weak demand recorded.
ii)Reference of good future from a popular blogger was wrong.
iii)I have forgotten to exclude profit from the lost of major telco customer many months ago, which will make the PE ratio high.
DKSH has been taken out from my list. Damages? Less than 10% because the first entry price was low.

Taken out from the list not because of the drop or recent profit, but there is no concrete future growth.

You can see that average down is good only if the future is good. And do not hesitate to take off the stock from our list.

Superlon stock.
Superln as reported saw KWSG emerged as a substatial shareholder.

Thong Guan stock.
TGuan recent result is good and share price has improved.

Some of the growth stories from The Star...
The company is projecting a “double-digit percentage” growth in its revenue and bottom line.

.....He said the strongest growing markets were now in the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea. The company, he said, is getting strong orders from Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.

.......On the outlook for the first quarter of 2017, Ang said the group had received enquiries and orders for the new value-added products such as the nano-layered stretch film materials, stretch hood materials, and films for automatic-packing machines.

The future growth is still there, so TGuan stock will remain in the list.

Opensystem stock.
Opensys profit not good. Share price also down. I  did not manage to get the reason on why revenue up but profit down except that it was due to currency fluatuation. Will continue to monitor because the customers' orders are still a lot for the coming months.

KESM stock.
Result good but the share price very hard to cross the RM10 consistently. If it crosses, probably another 100% gain for me.

BioAlpha Holdings.
BIOHLDG result as expected, nothing. But it is more for the future after the rights issue. Rights issue has been announced and ex date coming soon. The company will use the proceeds from rights issue to grow.

Mega First Corporatiob Bhd.
MFCB result for me is expected, drop on existing business but made from new hydro plant construction. Not sure how market will react. Past few weeks MFCB share price dropped because of uncertainty after the US Election and the volatility of Ringgit and Bursa Malaysia. I saw high % of its assets are in USD so strong USD should not be a problem. Although the share price was hit badly, now it has recovered nicely.

If we look at MFCB-WA, the price has recovered and went up higher than before it drop.

It is still not too late for those who wish to sell their mothers/cars/houses to sai lang on MFCB-WA. When Chinese friends took me that someone no waist, no backbone and no brain, it doesn't mean that. No waist means the lady's waist is big. No backbone means lazy. No brain means stupid. Sell mother sell car sell house does not mean we sell. Sell mother means sell mother shares (underlying stock). Sell car sell house means invest more after we have sought consultation from Financial Adviser. For more info on MFCB, please refer to my earlier posts.

MBSB.
Also announeced result. No comment.

Old Town stock.
Result not so good. Newbie also doesn't know his Oldtown and other stocks announced result. I don't think he knows how frequent a stock announces result. But he still made good profit.

Once again repeated again and again. It is not difficult to make money from stock market as proven by the stocks sharing here for the past 6 years and Newbie's journey for the past two years. Upside is unlimited and downside is limited. Sometimes we made wrong decisions, but losses are limited.

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Saturday, November 19, 2016

IQGroup, OPENSYS, JHM, Prlexus, Newbie

IQ Group released the financial result, it was okay nothing extraordinary. The stock price also reacted favourably.

Opensys stock price has crossed over RM0.40. Hope can sustain with good financial result.

JHM stock price is strong and people are waiting for their aerospace certification and financial result.

Just got to know besides coldeye, icon also interested in Prolexus.

Update on Newbie.
The day he started until now, the KLCI is down 15%, but his portfolio is up. He was very unfortunate because he started with oil and gas and some stocks that went down due to weak Ringgit. However, he still make profit and he is happy with the profit that he has made.

He has gone through some storms in the stock markets:
Oil and gas crash.
1MDB
Ringgit drop
Britain Exit.
China economy slowdown
Trump US Election.
Etc.

Being new in stock market, with all the storms, he still make profit. I estimated about 10% a year including dividend. Althought not very impressive, but:
i)He is new, lack of knowledge and doesn't bother to monitor his stocks.
ii)Always at the wrong timing and had experienced many storms.
iii)KLCI has dropped 15%.

I would say the performance is quite good. If with some experience and interest, the return could be much higher.

Basic things that he did?
Continue to invest in good fundamental growth stocks.

With this, I would stop reporting newbie journey because nothing much to write. The same old thing: keep investing in good fundamental growth stock and profit will come.

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Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.