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Thursday, February 11, 2016

How Newbie Lose 8% but make more than 60%

Newbie bought CARING as his third stock in 4th Quarter of 2014. Why CARING ? There was a research report in middle of 2014 saying CARING is good, with reasonable PE ratio, growth and dividend. Caring is expanding by opening more new outlets.
After few months from the research report, CARING Pharmacy stock price drop, and Newbie felt that the value is cheaper and bought it at RM1.2X.

HE MADE A MISTAKE !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Lesson to learn: There are many types of prices.

The price that we normally hear is THE LAST DONE PRICE. Example, if this morning someone asked what is the price of CARING share now, RM2.00.

I noticed remisier always quite two prices. What is the price of Caring? RM1.97 RM2.00.

That is the best buyer and seller price. If you are buying and key-in at RM1.97, you will be queuing at the back of RM1.97 now. If you buy at RM1.98, you are queuing and waiting for seller to throw to you, but you are the first in line at RM1.98. Same for RM1.99. But if you key-in at RM2.00, immediately done, depends on what is the quantity available at RM2.00. The quantity if more than your quantity, done all. If less than your quantity, your quantity will be partially done and the balance queuing at RM2.00.

And there is also REFERENCE PRICE. Example, if bonus issue 1 for 1, the closing price is RM10.00, then the next day the reference price will be RM5.00.

If RM10.00 ex-date for RM0.07 dividend, then the reference price will be RM9.93.

If not familiar, have to check with your remisier or dealers.

The closing price was RM1.11 or RM1.12, then this Newbie before market open he key-in to buy CARING at RM1.2X. DONE AT RM1.2X !!!!!

I asked him why, he said he saw RM1.2X. The situation is because early in the morning, for illiquid stock like Caring, not many people que to buy and/or sell yet. What is the price that he needs to key-in? Past few days were RM1.11 and RM1.12, he may try RM1.11, RM1.12 and RM1.13. Wait a while. There may be chancees that it will done at RM1.20 and immediately jump up all the way, but it is very very rare. Past many days are RM1.11 and RM1.12. About 8% GONE by buying at RM1.20 rather than RM1.11, RM1.12 or RM1.13 !!!!!

Lesson learned for him.
By the way, he sold Caring at RM1.9X or RM1.8X in 2015 and made more than 60% profit. I think if he bought lower, the profit could have been 70%.

Please continue to follow my blog on the journey of newbie, someone that is totally without any knowledge or experience, and no interest in stock market too. Want to learn and invest to make money by using the simple way, Dollar Cost Averaging and Fundamental.

Discover his mistakes, questions, profit and loss.

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Tuesday, February 9, 2016

How to spend $10,000 in a month?

                      $       Balance
Salary                           10,000
EPF               1,100           8,900
Tax                    860            8,040
Kindergarten        790      7,250
Day care              430      6,820
Child Activities      200     6,620
Car instalment      650     5,970
Car Maintenance  400      5,570
Petrol                         420     5,150
Parent                       1,000   4,150
Insurance                1,050     3,100
House                     1,300     1,800
Market/Grocery       450     1,350
Phone                         210     1,140
Electricity/ water       150      990
Toll + parking             150      840
Management Fee      200      640
Office Lunch              440      200
Weekend                     200         0  

Below are expenses simulations of an average middle class family.

Salary husband $6000 and wife $4000, total $10,000.
BALANCE $10,000


EPF $1,100 and Tax $870.
BALANCE $8,040

Kindergarten $790
Two kids. Youngest kindergarten plus day care, morning until 6.45pm. Nobody take care of him after morning class. $240 is morning class and $550 is day care plus lunch plus tea time. Slightly expensive because only one centre at the location that closes at 7pm+. Sometimes office a lot of things to do and late in picking up child. 
Unable to cut this expenses.
BALANCE $7,250.

Primary day care plus tuition $430
Eldest child in primary school afternoon. Morning nobody take care, so send to day care + tuition at 7.30am, $380. Afternoon the centre will send the child to school. $50 is to cater food from school canteen, eldest child still young, easier and no need to bring pocket money. About the same expenses if buy from canteen.
Unable to cut this expenses.
Balance $6,820

Child Activities $200
$100 per child, one swimming, one badminton. See most parents also give their children learning some extra activities. Hopefully one day they will be like Lee CW or Misbun Sidek. Shall cut this expenses?
BALANCE $6,620

Car Instalment $650
Instalment for most common local car, Myvi, for husband. Wife 10 years old Kelisa. If finish paying Myvi, then is time for wife to change car. Not really want to change, but if too old the repair cost also will be killing the owner and not reliable. Use public transport? Need cars to rush to pick-up children. Sometimes last minute husband need to stay late, sometimes wife, so need two cars.
BALANCE $5,970

Car Maintenance $400
Husband every 3 to 6 months normal service in Perodua service centre, every few visits is the centre say major service. $300 to $600 per service. But sometimes change tyre, brake, absorber, brake discs skimming, and many other things plus labour cost. Sometimes the bill can be close to $1000. Average per months is $100 for service and $100 for general maintenance and repairs.

Wife normal service is cheaper but repairs are worse, sometimes engine oil leaking, oil seals, overhaul, rims, and many other things plus labour cost. Always got a lot of things to repair. Wife monthly average also same $200.

Major repairs will be at other workshops. No matter which car, when we ask “ don’t change or don’t repair can or not?”, the replies are always the same, “can, but dangerous, especially if you on highway”.
No buying of unnecessary accessories.
BALANCE $5,570

Petrol $420
Husband $260, wife $160
BALANCE $5,150

Parents Monthly $1,000
Husband two parents and wife two, total four. Average giving about $250 per parent. Can reduce the amount?
BALANCE $4,150.

Insurance $1,050
Husband $450. Wife $350. Each child $125.
Not really can cut because husband got high blood pressure and any new insurance will have extra charges. If don’t buy full coverage now, any sickness will not be covered if detected before buying. Government hospital service is not good, example asking us to do kidney dialysis 3 times a week at private centre, and visit doctor have to wait weeks or months to book an appointment.
No education plan.
Shall cut this?
BALANCE $3,100

House Instalment $1300
Purchase cost $250,000 basic condo with only swimming pool. 1,000 square feet. Now also hard to get at this price.
BALANCE $1,800

Market and Grocery $450
About $110 per week. Market for cooking dinner Monday to Friday, fruits, grocery buying toilet paper, cooking oil, canned food, sauce, broom, detergent, kitchenware, gas, milk powder, biscuit, eggs, milk, cereal, bread, washing powder, and normally the bills from hypermarket are very long and expensive.
BALANCE $1,350.

Phone $210
$75 x 2 persons = $150.
3.5 years change phone $1,260. Per month is $30. X2 = $60
BALANCE $1,140

Utilities Bills $150
Electricity and water bills are standard. Very seldom watch TV or use laptop. No Astro, computer and Wi-Fi. No thermos flask/microwave, 1 room aircon 25 Celsius 10pm until 3pm, living hall once a while one hour aircon if very hot, 2 water heaters lowest temperature without pump, one washing machine and fridge. Most are florescent light (long lasting) and some energy savings lights (not long lasting always spoiled).

Toll and Parking $150
Wife office parking $120 per month.
Balance $840

Condo management Fee $200
This is expensive. Previously was $120. Many tenants didn’t pay, and only two blocks to share the costs. Unable to do anything, unless move to a new place. Now property prices are very expenses.

Office Lunch $440
22 days X $10 per day X 2 persons. Normal cheap meal is $6 to $7. One week one or two times eat Nasi Lemak for breakfast X 2 persons. One or two times a week lunch with drinks. Sometimes colleagues say enjoy a bit, sometimes got birthdays, eat $15 to $20 and sometimes buy small cakes. Sometimes buy for tea time. Most of the extras are ‘sometimes” only. Average is $10 per day.
9 days $6 = $54
9 days $7 = $63
2 days $15 = $30
2 days $20 = $40
Total 22 days working days in a month, $187

5 days per month Nasi Lemak breakfast $8
6 days per month lunch with drink $8
4 days per month tea time $8
2 days per month drive out parking $6
$3 for GST and service tax in some restaurants.
Total $220

Weekend $200
Many activities during weekend, so eat Nasi Campur / Mixed Rice outside. Husband and wife $5 x 2 persons = $10. Kids $2.50 X 2 persons = $5. Total food per day $15. 4 persons if eat 3 bowls of noodles $7 X 3 already $21 and more than $15 budget.
4 persons, each person $2.50 for other expenses per day during weekends, total $10. This is to cover the food budget >$15 per day, pay parking, buy some drinks if finished the tumblers/bottles from house, kids sometimes want ice-cream, buy $5 of fruit, rojak, roti canai, or tart when visiting parents.
($15 + $10) X 8 weekend (days) = $200.



The above are just the fixed expenses, and excluding the followings:

No Astro and no Wi-Fi.
Parents medical expenses, they use their own money plus pocket money given to them.
Buying new clothes.
Buying expensive toys examples Lego and cartoon movie trademark toys.
Health supplements
Cannot afford to smoke and drink alcohol.
Cannot afford direct selling products.
Vacation, local or overseas.
Occasions, examples father mother grandparents children relatives and friends birthdays, weddings, funerals, house warming.
Buying electrical items, either new items, spoiled or upgrade.
House maintenance, eg re-painting, pipe inside wall leaking.
Festive seasons expenses.
Branded goods, eg bags, shoes, shirts, dress.
No expensive restaurant and no normal restaurant also. If eat outside, eat noodle, chicken rice or mixed rice. No ordering dishes.
No helping others, eg giving money to someone in need.
No investment.
No emergency expenses.
Etc Etc..

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Monday, February 1, 2016

Why Newbie bought 2nd stock lose >50%!!

Refer to my earlier article, Newbie bought RM1,000 Barakah during his RM1,000 a month Dollar Cost Averaging on fundamental stock journey.

For second month, he bought DRBHCOM stock RM2.2X. Now DRBHICOM share price is RM1.04, lose more than 50% !!!!!

Panic? Worry?  First stock lose almost 50%, second stock lose more than 50%.

As I mentioned earlier, his overall portfolio is still having gain. How? Read more as I post more.

I disagreed with DRBHCOME stock because too many businesses inside, hard to grow. Unless they do corporate excercise example general offer, special dividend, suddenly one business unit make extra profit, etc, if not then hard for the share price to move up a lot.

He has shown me the analysts reports, reasonable PE ratio, with growth, high fair value target price, most analysts recommended Buy.

I did not dispute with him, because I was thinking it was my own idea which could be wrong. If I dispute with him, he will fell that investing is so difficult, so many rules, so complicated and very subjective.

Okay, let him buy. Shall not teach him what to buy and what not to buy. I want to show that as a new student studying in college/university with zero stock market knowledge also can make money.

95% of us are not remisiers, analysts, stock market expert, accountant, etc, but we also want to make money from stock market in a very simple way.

What went wrong? Dropped more than 50%?  I think it could be Proton Car in 2014, 1MDB, and 2015 Ringgit dropped a lot or market sentiment.

Sell? Research reports still recommend Buy.

By the way, just realised one of the lesson that he has learned, he asked which one is DRBHCOM stock, a lot of CA CB CC CD etc etc. I told him these are called Call Warrants.

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The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
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This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
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